Election 2024: What To Read and Listen To
Election 2024: What To Read and Listen To
With a few days left in this race, I've been getting many questions about my favorite sources across the political spectrum. There are very few truly objective sources out there, but I personally find the below helpful and trustworthy.
Early Voting + Election Night Returns
Michael Pruser. The data guru behind Decision Desk HQ provides nearly hourly updates on early vote figures as well as voter registration data.
University of Florida Professor Michael McDonald and his Elections Project newsletter are both incredible resources for understanding early vote trends.
The University of Florida’s Early Vote Tracker. This tool helps you view state-by-state returns and compare them against historical figures.
Tom Bonier. Tom is a Democratic data analyst and entrepreneur, but I find his data analysis objective and thorough. (See here for his appearance on Lost Debate.)
Jon Ralston and his early voting blog. Ralston is the most trusted voice on Nevada returns. At the moment, he is feeding Dem anxiety with brutal assessments of the Nevada trends.
How fast will votes be counted? Charles Stewart of MIT provides a helpful breakdown and historical count figures.
Polling/Forecasts
Nate Silver. The quant behind 538 (which he has since left) has an election prediction model that I find to be the most transparent and thorough. His model is behind a paywall from his newsletter, but he frequently tweets (if that’s still a word) his findings.
Nate Cohn and The New York Times have a ton of helpful analysis, including a few pieces linked below — in addition to the dreaded needle that we can come to expect on election night.
The Economist also has a forecasting model. You will find that they, like Silver, etc., generally have this race close to 50/50.
Cook Political Report is the most thorough and objective source for analysis of congressional races. I also follow two members of the Cook team, Dave Wasserman and Amy Walter, on X.
Primers:
Misc. Other:
FWIW newsletter. A great source for digital trends — where campaigns are spending money online and on what messages.
Tangle News. A non-partisan newsletter that presents takes from all sides of the political spectrum.
Lost Debate. Well, you probably know what that is if you subscribe to this.
Hacks on Tap. Former Democratic strategist David Axelrod teams up with former Republican strategist Mike Murphy to break down the state of the race.
The Bulwark Podcast. Former Republicans (mostly) analyze the state of the race. They are clearly anti-Trump, so they are not trying to present themselves as non-partisan, but I find them more honest about Dem challenges than other similar outlets.
Feel free to share your own recommendations in the comments section.